{"id":56951,"date":"2023-02-21T19:23:57","date_gmt":"2023-02-21T08:23:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/?p=56951"},"modified":"2023-02-21T19:23:57","modified_gmt":"2023-02-21T08:23:57","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-21-february-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/fundamental-analysis\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-21-february-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 February 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>What happened across the Asia session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Most major currencies traded slightly lower against the US dollar as the DXY experienced a brief strengthening during the Asia session.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What does it mean for Europe and US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Look out for higher volatility in price as the US market resumes following a bank holiday.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Dollar Index (DXY)\u00c2\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">USD Flash Services PMI<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">USD Flash Manufacturing PMI\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The DXY remained below the 104 price level overnight. However, as the price rejects the 103.70 price level, look for a potential breakout to the upside with market volatility expected to return. With the services and manufacturing PMI data expected to indicate a slight increase, look for the DXY to break above the 104 price level to signal further upside potential, with the near term high of 104.60 a potential target level.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25bps taking interest rates to 4.75%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ongoing rate increases will be expected\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Overnight, Gold fluctuate along the 1845 price level with no directional bias as the market consolidated. While the price remains below the 1850 price level, a rejection of the resistance could lead to a resumption of the downside for Gold, down toward the support level of 1820. Alternatively, if the price breaks out above 1850, Gold could continue with the correction to the upside, with the next immediate resistance at 1870.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">EUR Flash Services PMI\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The EURUSD traded slightly lower from the 1.0685 price level early in the trading session today. If the DXY continues to strengthen, the EURUSD could see significant downside, especially if the price breaks below 1.0650, with the immediate support level at 1.06. However, with a series of economic data to be released for the Eurozone today, volatility on the EURUSD could be higher. On the other hand, if the EURUSD breaks above the 1.07 round number level strongly, the price could climb higher toward the key resistance level of 1.0765.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another 50bps rate hike is to be expected for the next meeting.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 16 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The USDCHF traded within a range of 25 pips during the US session overnight, along the 0.9230 price level. A recovery in strength on the DXY would see the USDCHF trade higher, however, the price would have to break above the previous daily high of 0.9255 to signal further upside potential. If the price climbs higher, the USDCHF could retest the 0.93 round number price level.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">GBP Flash Services PMI\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Overnight, the GBPUSD consolidated in a narrow range along the 1.2035 price level, with no clear directional bias. Although the manufacturing and services PMI for the UK today is expected to show an improvement from the previous. This could bring some strength to the GBPUSD. The current price action indicates the possibility for a breakout to the downside. Anticipate higher volatility on the GBPUSD, and if the price trades below 1.20, the next key support level is at 1.1880.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Interest rate is currently at 4.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The BoE could pause on further interest rate hikes.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CAD Median CPI y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CAD Trimmed CPI y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CAD CPI m\/m\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The USDCAD traded slightly lower overnight, with the price reaching the near term support of 1.3440. Early in the trading session today, the USDCAD bounced from the support level to reach 1.3475 as the DXY recovered in strength. The USDCAD could continue to trade higher toward the key resistance level of 1.3540, with the Canadian CPI due to be released today. Median CPI y\/y is forecasted at 4.9% (Previous: 5.0%) which could alleviate the pressures on the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates further.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increased interest rates to 4.50%\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indicated that the BoC was likely to pause on future rate hikes.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 8 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Oil<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No Major News Events\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Overnight, WTI traded up to the 77.50 price level before reversing lower. Similarly, Brent climbed higher but reversed from the 84.50 price area. Anticipating a brief recovery in the DXY, energy prices could trade slightly lower but is likely to fluctuate within a wide range. Look for WTI and Brent to reach their support levels of 75.50 and 82.00 respectively.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happened across the Asia session? Most major currencies traded slightly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56951"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56951\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56958,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56951\/revisions\/56958"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}