{"id":57061,"date":"2023-03-02T13:10:53","date_gmt":"2023-03-02T02:10:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/?p=57061"},"modified":"2023-03-02T13:10:53","modified_gmt":"2023-03-02T02:10:53","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-01-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/fundamental-analysis\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-01-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 01 March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>What happened across the Asia session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Aussie year-on-year CPI has decreased to 7.4% from the previous value of 8.4% but is still higher than the forecasted value of 8.1%. This indicates that inflation is still a concern for the economy, but the rate of increase has slowed down compared to the previous period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What does it mean for Europe and US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Should the MoM German inflation come in lower than expected, the USD should continue its recovery rally against the major currencies as the trend of slowing inflation seems to persist.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><b>The Dollar Index (DXY) Update<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upcoming release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve slightly, with a consensus estimate of 47.9 (previous 47.4). However, a reading below 50 still indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The US Consumer Confidence report indicated a reduction in inflation expectations compared to the previous month, potentially hurting gold prices as the yellow metal is often seen as a hedge against inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">German Prelim CPI m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The German Prelim CPI m\/m is forecasted at 0.5%, lower than the previous figure of 1.0%. This indicates that the inflation rate in Germany is expected to slow down. Since the country is the largest economy in the Eurozone, its expected release may impact EUR negatively as the ECB may be influenced to be less hawkish in their path on interest rate hikes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECB Governing Council to continue raising interest rates and reducing holdings of securities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Future policy decisions to be data-dependent<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 16 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Retail Sales y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Manufacturing PMI<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although negative, the expected figure for Swiss\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Retail Sales (y\/y) is expected to show a slight improvement of -2.2% compared to the previous release of -2.8%. This may indicate a gradual recovery in the retail sector.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the Manufacturing PMI front, the forecasted figure of 50.4 suggests a slight improvement from the previous figure of 49.3, indicating a modest expansion in the manufacturing sector.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BOE Gov Bailey Speaks<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As the conference to be attended by the BoE Governor is focused on the cost-of-living crisis, his speech and any audience questions could lead to Governor Bailey addressing monetary policy implications due to the country\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s stubbornly high inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC&#8217;s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Mixed<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Manufacturing PMI<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upcoming data release for Canadian Manufacturing PMI will provide insights into the manufacturing sector\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s performance. In the previous release, the PMI figure was reported at 51.0, indicating modest expansion in the manufacturing industry.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increased rates to 4.50%; indicated pause of future rate hikes<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation in Canada is projected to drop to around 3% in the middle of 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Goal is to reach the 2% inflation target by 2024<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 8 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oil<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crude Oil Inventories<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upcoming data release for crude oil inventories is expected to decrease to 1.7 million barrels, compared to the previous week&#8217;s figure of 7.6 million. This indicates a potential reduction in the supply of crude oil, which may lead to a rise in oil prices if demand remains stable or increases.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; What happened across the Asia session? The Aussie year-on-year CPI [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57061"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57061\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57069,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57061\/revisions\/57069"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}