{"id":57083,"date":"2023-03-02T19:10:13","date_gmt":"2023-03-02T08:10:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/?p=57083"},"modified":"2023-03-02T19:10:13","modified_gmt":"2023-03-02T08:10:13","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-02-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/fundamental-analysis\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-02-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>What happened across the Asia session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Two data releases from the Asian session stand out.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Overseas Trade Index for New Zealand has shown an increase of 1.8% in contrast to the forecasted figure of -1.7% and the previous quarter&#8217;s figure of -3.9%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the data for Building Approvals in Australia has shown a negative momentum, with a decrease of 27.6% (expected -7.1%, previous 15.3%) on a monthly basis.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What does it mean for Europe and US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Euro could outperform other major currencies if its CPI y\/y data exceeds expectations. Based on recent data releases, the AUD is the best tag to go long the shared currency. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><b>The Dollar Index (DXY) Update<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unemployment Claims<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The US Unemployment Claims are expected to slightly increase from last week&#8217;s 192,000 figure, with a forecasted number of 196,000. A significantly higher number could negatively impact the US dollar since the strong labour market partly underpins the rate hike trajectory.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The lower-than-expected Australian CPI figure could indicate that inflationary pressures in Australia are starting to ease. This could reduce demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold, as investors become more confident in the economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CPI Flash Estimate y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Core CPI Flash Estimate y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upcoming CPI Flash Estimate y\/y data release for EUR is forecasted to be 8.3%, which is lower than the previous value of 8.6%. The Core CPI variant is expected to remain at 5.3%. These figures suggest a potential decline in the inflation rate in the Eurozone, while the underlying inflationary pressures are expected to remain stable.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECB Governing Council to continue raising interest rates and reducing holdings of securities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Future policy decisions to be data-dependent<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 16 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest data on Swiss retail sales show a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, in line with expectations and a slight improvement from the previous figure of -3.0%. Meanwhile, the Swiss PMI came in at 48.9, missing forecasts of 50.4 and lower than the last reading of 49.3. These data indicate ongoing challenges for the Swiss economy and may pressure CHF in the short term.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BoE Governor indicated that it is not urgent to boost interest rates beyond the current rate of 4.00%. The Bank of England anticipates a significant decrease in inflation this year. These developments are likely to weaken GBP against other major currencies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC&#8217;s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Bearish<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The impact of the latest decrease in Crude Oil Inventories (actual 1.2m bbl, expected 1.7m bbl, previous 7.6m bbl) on the CAD is likely to be positive since the oil price heavily influences its value.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increased rates to 4.50%; indicated pause of future rate hikes<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation in Canada is projected to drop to around 3% in the middle of 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Goal is to reach the 2% inflation target by 2024<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 8 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oil<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crude Oil Inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels (expected 1.7 million barrels), a significant drop from the previous 7.6 million barrels of excess. This indicates a potential oil price increase based on the discrepancy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; What happened across the Asia session? Two data releases from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57083","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57083"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57083\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57085,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57083\/revisions\/57085"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}