{"id":57111,"date":"2023-03-06T20:14:43","date_gmt":"2023-03-06T09:14:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/?p=57111"},"modified":"2023-03-06T20:14:43","modified_gmt":"2023-03-06T09:14:43","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-06-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/fundamental-analysis\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-06-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 06 March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>What happened in the Asian session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AUD&#8217;s MI Inflation Gauge m\/m data rose by 0.4%, below the previous 0.9%. This suggests that the inflationary pressure in the Australian economy may be easing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NZD&#8217;s ANZ Commodity Prices m\/m actual data increased by 1.3%, exceeding the forecasted -0.9%. The New Zealand economy benefits from improved commodity prices, which could boost economic growth in the near term.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What does it mean for Europe &amp; US sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest AUD MI Inflation Gauge m\/m data will likely reinforce the dovish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy. The central bank is expected to raise interest by 25 bps in tomorrow\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s announcements.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upcoming Swiss CPI release is anticipated to affirm slowing inflation in major global economies (expected 0.5%, previous 0.6%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Factory Orders m\/m, a leading economic indicator for the US economy, is expected to decrease by 1.8%, following a previous increase of 1.8%. This could pressure the USD upon data release, albeit temporarily.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Swiss CPI data release for the month is forecasted to show a 0.5% MoM increase, slightly lower than the previous 0.6%. It could impact gold prices depending on market sentiment, with a higher figure potentially increasing demand for gold as a hedge against inflation, while a lower figure could decrease demand.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A further increase in the upcoming MI Inflation Gauge m\/m data may lead to higher interest rates, increasing AUD value. Previous data showed a 0.9% increase.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash rate stands at 3.35%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Future rate rises are expected as RBA targets the 2-3% inflation target<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 7 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr signalled a cautious approach to interest rate hikes in his latest speech.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monetary Policy Committee increased the OCR from 4.25% to 4.75%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Higher interest rates are needed to reduce inflation and support employment sustainably<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Severe storms in North Island will increase inflation and disrupt production.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 5 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Previously released data will likely influence the price direction. The Tokyo Core CPI year-over-year figure remains at 3.3%, which aligns with the forecasted and previous readings of 3.3% and 4.3%, respectively. The unemployment rate is currently at 2.4%, lower than the forecasted and earlier readings of 2.5%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash rate stands at -0.1%\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expanded range for 10-year JGB yield fluctuations to 0.5%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 8 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed-to-Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upcoming data releases for EUR, including the forecasted Sentix Investor Confidence of -5.6 (previous reading of -8.0) and a forecasted Retail Sales m\/m of 0.7% (previous reading of -2.7%), may have a potentially positive impact on the EUR.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECB Governing Council to continue raising interest rates and reducing holdings of securities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Future policy decisions to be data-dependent<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 16 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CPI m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Switzerland&#8217;s upcoming CPI m\/m data is forecasted at 0.5%, slightly lower than the previous 0.6%. However, the impact on CHF could remain uncertain and depends on market sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UK Construction PMI forecasted at 48.7 and previous at 48.4. Both readings of the country\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Construction PMI indicate a contraction in the construction sector.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC&#8217;s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Bearish<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ivey PMI<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ivey PMI, a monthly economic indicator for Canada&#8217;s manufacturing sector, is forecasted to decline from 60.1 to 55.9. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and below 50 indicates contraction. The impact on CAD may be mixed, depending on how much the actual data deviate from the forecast.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increased rates to 4.50%; indicated pause of future rate hikes<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation in Canada is projected to drop to around 3% in the middle of 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Goal is to reach the 2% inflation target by 2024<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 8 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oil<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The UAE is reportedly discussing leaving OPEC, which could disrupt the balance of global oil supply and demand, leading to increased competition and potentially lower prices for consumers, but also destabilising the oil market and harming oil-exporting countries.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happened in the Asian session? AUD&#8217;s MI Inflation Gauge m\/m [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57111"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57111\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57133,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57111\/revisions\/57133"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}