{"id":57170,"date":"2023-03-09T17:18:48","date_gmt":"2023-03-09T06:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/?p=57170"},"modified":"2023-03-09T17:18:48","modified_gmt":"2023-03-09T06:18:48","slug":"ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-9-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/fundamental-analysis\/ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-9-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 9 March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>What happened in the US session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fed Chair Powell said again that the central bank might increase interest rates faster to combat stubbornly high inflation to the 2% target. This reiteration, solid ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and upbeat JOLTS Job Openings helped sustain Tuesday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s gain in the USD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As expected, the BOC held its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What does it mean for the Asian Session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China&#8217;s CPI y\/y forecast is 1.9% (previous 2.1%), and the PPI y\/y forecast is -0.8% (previous -1.3%), impacting AUD as China is Australia&#8217;s biggest trade partner. Higher CPI may boost AUD, while better PPI could raise demand for Australian raw materials, increasing AUD&#8217;s value.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unemployment Claims<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">US Unemployment Claims data is due for release, with forecasted claims at 195K, compared to the previous figure of 190K. A better-than-expected figure could increase the dollar&#8217;s value and vice versa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The reiteration of the US central bank\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s hawkish stance towards inflation during Fed Chair Powell\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s testimony should put further downward pressure on the price of gold.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As there is no major news event for the AUD, the price direction of the currency is likely to be influenced by the recent comments made by RBA Governor Lowe. The chief mentioned the possibility of halting interest rate hikes as the monetary policy becomes more restrictive but emphasised the need for further tightening to achieve the inflation target.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash rate raised by 25 basis points to 3.60%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Board prioritises returning inflation to target, with a likely need for further monetary policy tightening.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Board to closely monitor the global economy, household spending trends, inflation and labour market outlook when assessing interest rate increases.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 4 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More robust than previous BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index (50.8) and Manufacturing Sales q\/q (5.1%) data releases could temporarily strengthen the NZD.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monetary Policy Committee increased the OCR from 4.25% to 4.75%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Higher interest rates are needed to reduce inflation and support employment sustainably<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Severe storms in North Island will increase inflation and disrupt production.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 5 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Upcoming data releases include Final GDP Price Index y\/y (expected 1.1%, previous 1.1%), Final GDP q\/q (expected 0.2priorous 0.2%), and M2 Money Stock y\/y (expected 2.8priorous 2.7%). The impact on JPY is expected to be moderate, with M2 Money Stock y\/y having a slight potential impact due to a possible increase in inflationary pressure.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash rate stands at -0.1%\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expanded range for 10-year JGB yield fluctuations to 0.5%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 8 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Upcoming French Final Private Payrolls q\/q data is forecasted at 0.0%, same as previous. If there&#8217;s a surprise increase or decrease, it could impact the EUR value.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECB Governing Council to continue raising interest rates and reducing holdings of securities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Future policy decisions to be data-dependent<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 16 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news event for CHF today, so price direction may draw from the recent SNB Chairman&#8217;s speech about tightening economic policy through interest rates and currency interventions to stabilise prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UK&#8217;s RICS House Price Balance data&#8217;s forecasted figure of -48% (previous -47%) may negatively impact GBP due to decreased consumer confidence and a slower housing mar. This leads to investors seeking alternatives and reducing demand for GBP.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC&#8217;s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Weak Bearish<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news event for CAD today, so price direction depends on the recent slightly hawkish BOC monetary announcements: Overnight Rate maintained at 4.5%; BOC is ready to raise the policy rate to return inflation to 2%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bank of Canada maintains its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation eased in January, but price increases for food and shelter remain high<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BOC is prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 12 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oil<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The recent reaffirmation by Fed Chair Powell regarding the prospect of a more rapid increase in interest rates has sparked a substantial surge in the value of the US dollar. This development has the potential to exert a downward influence on oil prices and could have wider repercussions for the global economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; What happened in the US session? Fed Chair Powell said [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57170","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57170"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57170\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57171,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57170\/revisions\/57171"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}