{"id":57211,"date":"2023-03-13T15:23:27","date_gmt":"2023-03-13T04:23:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/?p=57211"},"modified":"2023-03-13T15:23:27","modified_gmt":"2023-03-13T04:23:27","slug":"ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-13-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/fundamental-analysis\/ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-13-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>What happened in the US session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">US labour data are generally weaker compared to previous. The latest data shows earnings increased by 0.2% (forecasted 0.3%, previous 0.3%), 311K jobs added (forecasted 504K, previous 224K), and a 3.6% unemployment rate (forecasted 3.4%, previous 3.4%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What does it mean for the Asian Session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest announcement by the US Treasury and Federal Reserve to stem the developing crisis in the banking system has weakened the USD and is likely to see a continuation of the reactive effect in the session.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news for USD today, so its price direction may draw from previously released lower-than-expected labour data. The US dollar may weaken in the short term as investors respond to these lower-than-expected figures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The anticipated weaker USD could boost demand for Gold as yellow gold becomes relatively cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Tuesday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s lower expectations on US inflation would provide another bullish jolt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite a lack of AUD data, RBA Governor Lowe&#8217;s recent comments may impact the currency&#8217;s price. He discussed the need for tightening to meet inflation targets while halting interest rate hikes due to a stricter monetary policy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash rate raised by 25 basis points to 3.60%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Board prioritises returning inflation to target, with a likely need for further monetary policy tightening.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Board to closely monitor the global economy, household spending trends, inflation and labour market outlook when assessing interest rate increases.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 4 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest BusinessNZ Services Index increased from 54.7 to 55.8, indicating sector expansion, potentially strengthening NZD. On the other hand, FPI m\/m decreased from 1.7% to 1.5%, leading to reduced inflation and a potential weakening of the NZD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monetary Policy Committee increased the OCR from 4.25% to 4.75%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Higher interest rates are needed to reduce inflation and support employment sustainably<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Severe storms in North Island will increase inflation and disrupt production.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 5 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upcoming release of the JPY BSI Manufacturing Index is forecasted to be -4.2, a slight decrease from the previous reading of -3.6. This indicates a potential decline in confidence among Japanese manufacturers, which could negatively impact the country&#8217;s economy.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Japan&#8217;s economy is expected to recover gradually<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 27 April 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Eurogroup meetings&#8217; outcome can significantly impact the Euro&#8217;s value in the international currency markets. Suppose the ministers agree on critical economic issues and propose policies that are seen as favourable for the Eurozone&#8217;s economy. In that case, it can strengthen the Euro&#8217;s position and increase demand for the currency.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECB Governing Council to continue raising interest rates and reducing holdings of securities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Future policy decisions to be data-dependent<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 16 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given the absence of any critical news updates for CHF today, the direction of its price may be swayed by the recent address given by the SNB Chairman. This speech outlined plans to stabilise prices via interest rate modifications and currency interventions, indicating a move towards tighter economic policies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As there is no major news event for GBP today, the direction of the currency is likely to draw from the latest GDP m\/m figures that show a growth of 0.3% in the economy in the last reported period. Although a lagging indicator, the positive GDP growth can suggest that the economy is recovering and may support the pound\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s value.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC&#8217;s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Weak Bullish<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news event for CAD today, so price direction is likely drawn from previously released labour data. Employment Change: 21.8K (vs forecasted 8.5K, previous 150.0K). Unemployment Rate: 5.0% (vs forecasted 5.1%, previous 5.0%). These figures may positively impact CAD\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s price direction, albeit mildly and temporarily.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bank of Canada maintains its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation eased in January, but price increases for food and shelter remain high<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BOC is prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 12 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oil<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An anticipated weakening of the US dollar may decrease the price of oil in non-dollar currencies, potentially boosting demand.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; What happened in the US session? US labour data are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57211"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57211\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57212,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57211\/revisions\/57212"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}