{"id":57268,"date":"2023-03-16T19:12:39","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T08:12:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/?p=57268"},"modified":"2023-03-16T19:12:39","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T08:12:39","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-16-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/fundamental-analysis\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-16-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 16 March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>What happened in the Asian session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BoE officials discussed the potential global impact of Credit Suisse&#8217;s crisis with international counterparts, anticipating a possible bailout to prevent widespread consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the data front, the better-than-expected Australian employment data, with a net gain of 64.6K jobs (Forecast 49.7K, Previous -10.9K) and a lower unemployment rate of 3.5% (Forecast 3.6%, Previous 3.7%), will likely positively impact the AUD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The US Unemployment Claims data may be overshadowed by monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB). However, news related to the banking sector crisis is expected to be the dominant factor influencing the Euro&#8217;s ongoing recovery against the US dollar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unemployment Claims<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The forecasted number of Unemployment Claims for the period stands at 205K, slightly lower than the previous week&#8217;s figure of 211K. If the expectation holds, the US dollar may strengthen due to improved labour market conditions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the assurance from the Swiss authorities and the Fed on their respective banking sectors, lingering concerns about further contagion risks are likely to support the safe-haven gold.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Employment Change<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unemployment Rate<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Upcoming data releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics include Employment Change (forecasted 49.7K, previous -11.5K) and Unemployment Rate (forecasted 3.6%, previous 3.7%). More robust employment figures could strengthen the AUD, while disappointing data may put downward pressure on it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash rate raised by 25 basis points to 3.60%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Board prioritises returning inflation to target, with a likely need for further monetary policy tightening.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Board to closely monitor the global economy, household spending trends, inflation and labour market outlook when assessing interest rate increases.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 4 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">GDP q\/q\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The New Zealand GDP q\/q report showed a 0.6% contraction, lower than the -0.2% forecast and the previous 1.7% growth. The data may lead to a dovish\/less hawkish RBNZ monetary policy and reduced investor confidence.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monetary Policy Committee increased the OCR from 4.25% to 4.75%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Higher interest rates are needed to reduce inflation and support employment sustainably<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Severe storms in North Island will increase inflation and disrupt production.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 5 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Core Machinery Orders m\/m is forecasted at 1.5% (prev. 1.6%). The Trade Balance is expected at -1.46T JPY (prev. -1.82T JPY). Revised Industrial Production m\/m is forecasted to remain at -4.6%. Positive outcomes may support JPY, while negative results could lead to depreciation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Japan&#8217;s economy is expected to recover gradually<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 27 April 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monetary Policy Statement<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECB Press Conference <\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ECB will likely raise the Main Refinancing Rate to 3.50%, up from the previous 3.00%. However, the latest debacles surrounding Credit Suisse and the US banking sector may lead to a lower-than-expected hike.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Further, any signs of dovishness in the Monetary Policy Statement could negatively impact the Euro&#8217;s value; the press conference following the rate announcement and policy statement will provide further insights into the ECB&#8217;s decision-making process.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECB Governing Council to continue raising interest rates and reducing holdings of securities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Future policy decisions to be data-dependent<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 16 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is set to release its latest economic forecasts, which are expected to provide critical insights into Switzerland&#8217;s economic outlook. A weaker outlook could result in further depreciation of the CHF amid increased volatility from the debacle surrounding Credit Suisse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Office for Budget Responsibility projects no 2023 UK recession; inflation to drop from 10.7% (Q4 2022) to 2.9% by the end of 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC&#8217;s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Mixed<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Canadian Wholesale Sales m\/m data is expected to show a positive growth of 3.0% (previous -0.8%). Meeting expectations could positively impact the CAD, indicating increased demand for Canadian goods and services.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bank of Canada maintains its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation eased in January, but price increases for food and shelter remain high<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BOC is prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 12 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oil<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Actual crude oil inventories for the current period are 1.6M barrels, higher than the forecasted 1.3M barrels but lower than the previous -1.7M barrels. This suggests a rise in inventories, possibly lowering demand and leading to a drop in oil prices.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happened in the Asian session? BoE officials discussed the potential [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57268"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57268\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57282,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57268\/revisions\/57282"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}