{"id":57270,"date":"2023-03-16T13:51:48","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T02:51:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/?p=57270"},"modified":"2023-03-16T13:51:48","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T02:51:48","slug":"ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-16-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/fundamental-analysis\/ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-16-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>What happened in the US session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Swiss authorities confirmed that Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity standards required, and the SNB will act if needed. The bank&#8217;s shares faced pressure following the revelation of a significant flaw in financial reporting and the refusal of its most prominent backer to offer more funding.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest US data generally underperformed relative to the forecasted and previous data. This could negatively impact the USD, suggesting weaker inflationary pressures, a slowdown in consumer spending, and a decline in manufacturing activity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What does it mean for the Asian Session?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Amid the backing for Credit Suisse from the SNB, CHF\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s safe-haven status could face potential disruptions due to increasing market concerns surrounding bank failures. Gold will likely benefit from a shift away from the Swiss Franc.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oil will likely remain under pressure amid rising recession risks from the fallout in the US and Credit Suisse saga in Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unemployment Claims<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The forecasted number of Unemployment Claims for the period stands at 205K, slightly lower than the previous week&#8217;s figure of 211K. If the expectation holds, the US dollar may strengthen due to improved labour market conditions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the assurance from the Swiss authorities and the Fed on their respective banking sectors, lingering concerns about further contagion risks are likely to support the safe-haven gold.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Employment Change<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unemployment Rate<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Upcoming data releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics include Employment Change (forecasted 49.7K, previous -11.5K) and Unemployment Rate (forecasted 3.6%, previous 3.7%). More robust employment figures could strengthen the AUD, while disappointing data may put downward pressure on it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash rate raised by 25 basis points to 3.60%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Board prioritises returning inflation to target, with a likely need for further monetary policy tightening.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Board to closely monitor the global economy, household spending trends, inflation and labour market outlook when assessing interest rate increases.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 4 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">GDP q\/q\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The New Zealand GDP q\/q report showed a 0.6% contraction, lower than the -0.2% forecast and the previous 1.7% growth. The data may lead to a dovish\/less hawkish RBNZ monetary policy and reduced investor confidence.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monetary Policy Committee increased the OCR from 4.25% to 4.75%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Higher interest rates are needed to reduce inflation and support employment sustainably<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Severe storms in North Island will increase inflation and disrupt production.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 5 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Core Machinery Orders m\/m is forecasted at 1.5% (prev. 1.6%). The Trade Balance is expected at -1.46T JPY (prev. -1.82T JPY). Revised Industrial Production m\/m is forecasted to remain at -4.6%. Positive outcomes may support JPY, while negative results could lead to depreciation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Japan&#8217;s economy is expected to recover gradually<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting is on 27 April 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monetary Policy Statement<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECB Press Conference <\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ECB will likely raise the Main Refinancing Rate to 3.50%, up from the previous 3.00%. However, the latest debacles surrounding Credit Suisse and the US banking sector may lead to a lower-than-expected hike.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Further, any signs of dovishness in the Monetary Policy Statement could negatively impact the Euro&#8217;s value; the press conference following the rate announcement and policy statement will provide further insights into the ECB&#8217;s decision-making process.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ECB Governing Council to continue raising interest rates and reducing holdings of securities<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Future policy decisions to be data-dependent<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 16 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is set to release its latest economic forecasts, which are expected to provide critical insights into Switzerland&#8217;s economic outlook. A weaker outlook could result in further depreciation of the CHF amid increased volatility from the debacle surrounding Credit Suisse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Current policy rate is at 1.00%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Office for Budget Responsibility projects no 2023 UK recession; inflation to drop from 10.7% (Q4 2022) to 2.9% by the end of 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC&#8217;s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 23 March 2023\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Mixed<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Canadian Wholesale Sales m\/m data is expected to show a positive growth of 3.0% (previous -0.8%). Meeting expectations could positively impact the CAD, indicating increased demand for Canadian goods and services.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bank of Canada maintains its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation eased in January, but price increases for food and shelter remain high<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BOC is prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next meeting on 12 April 2023<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Oil<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Actual crude oil inventories for the current period are 1.6M barrels, higher than the forecasted 1.3M barrels but lower than the previous -1.7M barrels. This suggests a rise in inventories, possibly lowering demand and leading to a drop in oil prices.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happened in the US session? Swiss authorities confirmed that Credit [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57270","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57270"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57270\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57272,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57270\/revisions\/57272"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}