IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 March 2023<\/b><\/p>\n
What happened in the Asian session?<\/b><\/p>\n
As expected, the AUD outperformed other major currencies based on recent solid labour data.<\/span><\/p>\n On the data front, the latest Tertiary Industry Activity report in Japan indicates a 0.9% growth, surpassing the 0.5% forecast and the previous month’s -0.4% contraction. This positive outcome suggests a more robust service sector and may lead to a stronger JPY as investor confidence in the Japanese economy grows.<\/span><\/p>\n What does it mean for the Europe & US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n Inflation-related data from Europe and the UK will likely be the focus before the US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. However, concerns over the banking crises in the US and Europe, although they seem to be waning, could overshadow the economic figure should more banks come forward to confess their troubles.<\/span><\/p>\n The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n A higher-than-expected Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Index release, with a forecast of 67.0 and a previous figure of 66.9, may positively impact USD and vice versa. Two versions of this data, Preliminary and Revised, are released 14 days apart. The Preliminary release, being earlier, typically has a more significant impact.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n The hawkish ECB and combined efforts to prevent a banking crisis from spreading may reduce safe-haven demand for the non-interest-bearing metal.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n Without significant news, the AUD’s value may be driven higher by the recent positive labour data, with 64.6K jobs added (Forecast 49.7K, Previous -10.9K) and a 3.5% Unemployment Rate (Forecast 3.6%, Previous 3.7%).<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n NZD’s direction is likely to draw from previously released data, with -0.6% GDP q\/q compared to forecasted -0.2% and previous 1.7%, potentially weakening commodity-linked currency.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n Japan\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Tertiary Industry Activity m\/m is expected to rise by 0.5% (prev. -0.4%). This could positively impact JPY due to its significant contribution to the Japanese GDP (approx. 70%) and suggest overall economic expansion.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n Eurozone’s Final CPI y\/y is expected to decrease from 8.6% to 8.5%, while the Final Core CPI y\/y is expected to remain the same at 5.6%. Should the data set come in lower than expected, the recent hawkish seen in the ECB may be mildly tamed.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n Swiss economic growth in 2023 is expected to be significantly below average at 1.1%, rising to 1.5% in 2024. The slowdown is also anticipated to affect the Swiss labour market with a lag, with unemployment projected to reach 2.3% in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n Higher UK Consumer Inflation Expectations, previously at 4.8%, may prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to tighten monetary policy, strengthening the GBP. Conversely, a lower figure could weaken the GBP since this development would reinforce BoE\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s intentions to pause rate hikes sooner than expected.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/b><\/p>\n The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The lower-than-expected figures from second-tier data, namely the Foreign Securities Purchases, IPPI m\/m and RMPI m\/m, may weaken the CAD.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n Oil<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n The infusion of liquidity by the US and European central banks and major US banks to stem the liquidity crisis will likely provide stability to the banking sector and ease concerns over a potential mass banking crisis. This could help reduce uncertainty and volatility in the oil market.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 March 2023 What happened […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57292"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57292\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57302,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57292\/revisions\/57302"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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