IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2023<\/b><\/p>\n
What happened in the US session?<\/b><\/p>\n
To tackle inflationary pressure, the SNB raised the policy rate to 1.5% with an increase of 50bps and may continue. Inflation has been rising since the start of the year, currently at 3.4%, which still exceeds the range that the SNB regards as a stable price level.<\/span><\/p>\n The BoE has increased its policy rate to 4.25% by 25 basis points. The central bank has reiterated its commitment to further tightening its policy in response to any signs of sustained inflationary pressures.<\/span><\/p>\n US Unemployment Claims came in better than expected at 191K (Forecast 198K. Previous 192K)<\/span><\/p>\n What does it mean for the Asian Session?<\/b><\/p>\n The AUD will likely underperform in the session as Australia\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s latest Flash Manufacturing PMI, and the Flash Services PMI fell below 50 and into the contraction zone. This follows the RBA\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s intentions to consider a pause in its rate hike cycle.<\/span><\/p>\n The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Flash Manufacturing PMI<\/span><\/p>\n Flash Services PMI<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n Forecasted US Flash Manufacturing PMI of 47.0 (previous 47.3) suggests a contraction, while the Services variant is seen at 50.3 (previous 50.6), indicating a minor slowdown. The USD will likely be pressured if the PMIs meet expectations.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n The recent interest rate increases by the SNB and the BoE reflect their efforts to address inflationary pressures. However, these decisions may negatively affect gold, as higher interest rates may make the yellow metal less attractive as an investment option.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n Australia’s Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 from the previous 50.5, and the Flash Services PMI dropped from 50.7 to 48.2. These decreases may signal a weaker economy, impacting investor confidence and potentially leading to a weaker AUD.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n As there is no significant news concerning NZD today, the currency’s price movement will probably depend on the recently released data, which was mixed – GDT Price Index (-2.6%, previously -0.7%) and Westpac Consumer Sentiment (77.7, previously 75.6).<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n National Core CPI y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n If the National Core CPI y\/y (forecast 3.1%, previous 4.2%) comes in lower than expected, it could weaken the yen. In contrast, a better-than-expected Flash Manufacturing PMI (forecast 48.2, previous 47.7) could slightly strengthen the yen since<\/span> any reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the sector.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n French Flash Manufacturing PMI<\/span><\/p>\n French Flash Services PMI<\/span><\/p>\n German Flash Manufacturing PMI<\/span><\/p>\n German Flash Services PMI<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed expectations of the French and German PMIs could lead to a day of consolidation for the Euro amid the Euro Summit, where heads of state from the European Union countries discuss economic and financial situation and policy coordination in Brussels.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n While there is no major news event for the CHF today, the currency’s value is still likely influenced by the recent SNB decision to raise its policy rate in response to rising inflation.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n UK Flash Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to increase to 49.8 (from 49.3), indicating a slight improvement. However, Flash Services PMI is predicted to decrease to 53.1 (from 53.5), suggesting a slight decline. The mixed data is likely to see a muted impact on the GBP.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/b><\/p>\n The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n Core Retail Sales m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n Retail Sales m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n Canadian Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales are expected to increase. The forecasted increase for Core Retail Sales m\/m is 0.6%, a significant improvement from the previous decrease of -0.6%. Similarly, the forecasted growth for Retail Sales m\/m is 0.7%, slightly higher than the previous increase of 0.5%. If the actual data aligned with the forecasted data, it could positively impact the CAD, indicating a more robust retail sector and potential economic growth.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n Oil<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n Wood Mackenzie’s report highlights that the return to normal mobility in China is the biggest demand driver for oil, accounting for 1m bpd of the 2.6m bpd increase this year. They project China’s economy to grow by 7% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2024, indicating a potential rise in oil demand.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2023 What happened […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57402"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57402\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57403,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57402\/revisions\/57403"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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