IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 March 2023<\/b><\/p>\n
What happened in the Asia session?<\/b><\/p>\n
The ANZ Business Confidence data for New Zealand is -43.4, while the previous value was -43.3, suggesting that business confidence in New Zealand has declined slightly in the given period.<\/span><\/p>\n What does it mean for the Europe & US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n A higher-than-expected German Prelim CPI m\/m could bring the EUR\/USD out of consolidation towards the recent highs of around 1.0930.\u00c2\u00a0 Likewise, better than expected figures for the US Final GDP q\/q Unemployment Claims could see the pair head towards 1.0750\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Final GDP q\/q<\/span><\/p>\n Unemployment Claims<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n The forecasted and previous data show no change in the US final GDP q\/q at 2.7%. However, Unemployment Claims are expected to increase from 191K to 196K. This could indicate weakness in the labour market and the overall economy, negatively impacting the USD.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n The latest CPI y\/y for Australia showed a consecutive drop, suggesting an easing global inflation situation and potentially leading to a decrease in gold prices.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n No major news event for AUD today. The price direction could draw from the previous CPI y\/y data release, which showed a consecutive drop to 6.8%.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The NZ Building Consents m\/m data showed a 9.0% decline, far below the previous figure of 5.2%. This suggests a slowdown in the construction industry and may lead to a depreciation in the NZD. A drop in the upcoming release of the ANZ Business Confidence (previous -43.3) could exacerbate a downward price movement.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n There is no major news event for JPY today, so price direction may depend on expectations for upcoming data releases. Tokyo Core CPI y\/y is expected at 3.1%, down from the previous 3.3%. The anticipated drop in consumer prices could lead to a decline in JPY.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n German Prelim CPI m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n The forecasted data is 0.6%, slightly lower than the previous month’s figure of 0.8%. If the actual figure comes in below the forecast, it may signal lower inflationary pressures but could lead only to a slight decrease in the value of the EUR since the ECB expressed hawkishness even amid the banking crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n As there is no major news event for the currency today, the price direction of CHF is likely to draw from the previously released Credit Suisse Economic Expectations data that showed a value of -41.3 (previous -12.3). This indicates that there has been a significant drop in economic expectations over the given time frame, which could lead to a decrease in the value of CHF.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n MPC member Mann’s speech stated that reducing UK services inflation from 6% to 2% will be challenging, causing uncertainty and potentially reducing GBP\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s value against other major currencies. The long-term impact is still being determined, but the BoE’s strong track record of managing inflation will likely prevent significant changes, despite the persistent core inflation remaining.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/b><\/p>\n The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n Governor Council Member Gravelle suggests large-scale GOC bond purchases if faced with severe dysfunction, while Canada’s well-regulated financial system may still be affected by global events. Support for the system would be provided in times of widespread stress.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n Oil<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n Crude Oil Inventories decreased by 7.5M barrels, surpassing the forecasted and previous numbers of 1.8M and 1.1M barrels, respectively. This implies a reduction in supply and could lead to increased oil prices.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 March 2023 What happened […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57483"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57483\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57497,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57483\/revisions\/57497"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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