IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 31 March 2023<\/b><\/p>\n
What happened in the US session?<\/b><\/p>\n
The US Final GDP q\/q was 2.6%, lower than the forecasted and previous values of 2.7%. The Unemployment Claims came in at 198K, higher than the predicted value of 196K (previous 191K).<\/span><\/p>\n What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/b><\/p>\n A fair share of the volatility will likely be split between the AUD and the JPY since the data releases for the session are centred around the two. Positive surprises for the Japanese Yen could see USD\/JPY defend 133, while favourable Chinese data could see AUD\/USD break out of consolidation and head higher towards 0.6750.<\/span><\/p>\n The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Core PCE Price Index m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n The US Core PCE Price Index is forecasted with a 0.4% increase. Previous data showed 0.6%. A lower-than-expected figure would weaken the USD since the Fed will likely be less likely to raise rates in the face of a recovery banking turmoil.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n The US Core PCE Price Index m\/m is expected to increase slower, suggesting that inflationary pressures are moderating, which could reduce the demand for gold as a hedge against inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The Australian Private Sector Credit m\/m data is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4%, indicating steady growth in lending to businesses and individuals. This may neutrally impact the AUD, as it does not suggest any significant changes in the lending market.<\/span><\/p>\n However, the Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI are forecasted to decrease from previous figures, indicating a slowdown in the sectors. This may hurt the AUD, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n While no major news event from New Zealand could significantly influence NZD\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s price direction, the upcoming Australian and Chinese data could provide some volatility for the closely-linked currency.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Tokyo Core CPI y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n A mixed implication can be expected from a slew of Japanese data releases today, including Tokyo Core CPI y\/y (forecast 3.1%, previous 3.3%), Unemployment Rate: (forecast 2.4%, previous 2.4%), Prelim Industrial Production m\/m (forecast 2.8%, previous -5.3%), Retail Sales y\/y (forecast 5.9%, previous 5.0), Housing Starts y\/y (forecast -0.5%, previous 6.6%)<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n CPI Flash Estimate y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n Core CPI Flash Estimate y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n ECB President Lagarde Speaks<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n Upcoming Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y\/y data is expected to decrease from 8.5% to 7.1%, indicating a cooling of inflationary pressures. However, Core CPI Flash Estimate y\/y data will likely increase from 5.6% to 5.7%, suggesting underlying inflationary pressures persist. ECB President Lagarde’s remarks during the US session may also infuse volatility into the Euro.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n The speech by Governing Board Member Maechler could provide insights into the central bank’s monetary policy stance and future decisions. Meanwhile, Switzerland\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Retail Sales y\/y report is expected to improve from the previous reading of -2.2%, with a forecast of -1.0%. The KOF Economic Barometer is also likely to show a slight improvement from the prior reading of 100.0, with a forecast of 100.4. The higher-than-expected readings could lead to a stronger CHF.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed signals are expected from the second-tier UK data releases today, with slight improvements in Current Account and Nationwide HPI m\/m that may support GBP, while lack of growth in Final GDP q\/q may limit gains.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/b><\/p>\n The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n GDP m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The Canadian economy is expected to turn around with an anticipated growth rate of 0.4%, indicating a potential improvement from the previous period, which had declined by -0.1%. A higher-than-expected GDP growth rate in the current period could boost the CAD.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n Oil<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Monday is expected to see the cartel stick to its current production cuts while refraining from reacting to the recent drop in oil prices, which is being cushioned by Iraq’s export disruptions.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 31 March 2023 What happened […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57506"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57506\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57507,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57506\/revisions\/57507"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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