IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 5 April 2023<\/b><\/p>\n
What happened in the Asia session?<\/b><\/p>\n
The RBNZ surprised the market with a 50-bps hike vs the 25-bps increase expected. The OCR now stands at 5.25%. The Rate Statement highlighted that the recent severe weather events in the North Island have led to higher prices for some goods and services, increasing the risk of inflation expectations persisting above the target range.<\/span><\/p>\n What does it mean for the Europe & US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n The RBNZ has demonstrated the will of central banks to bring inflation down towards the 2% target area. This surprise hike will likely motivate the NZD\/USD pair to the round figure at 0.6400. A bearish confirmation from the upcoming<\/span> US<\/span> ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for the dismal JOLTS Job Openings would reinforce the anticipated NZD strength against the USD.<\/span><\/p>\n The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n ADP Non-Farm Employment Change<\/span><\/p>\n ISM Services PMI<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n The forecasted ADP Non-Farm Employment Change of 208K, lower than the previous reading of 242K, suggests a potential weakness in the US job market. However, the ISM Services PMI is forecasted to decrease from 55.1 to 54.3, indicating slowing US service sector growth. This could also hurt the USD.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n The decision of the RBA to maintain the cash rate at 3.60% could positively impact the price of gold since<\/span> the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases in a stable interest rate environment.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Cash Rate<\/span><\/p>\n RBA Gov Lowe Speaks\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n Any cautious language from RBA Governor Lowe in the upcoming speech could dampen market expectations for future rate hikes and weaken the AUD. The speech\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s tone could significantly impact the AUD, as it will set the stage for the central bank\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s future monetary policy decisions.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Official Cash Rate<\/span><\/p>\n RBNZ Rate Statement<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The RBNZ is expected to increase the OCR by 25 bps, from\u00c2\u00a0 4.75% to 5.00%. Any indication of a hawkish stance continuation in the accompanying Rate statement would strengthen the NZD.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n The lack of significant news events means the previously released data will likely drive the JPY price direction. Key indicators: 10-y Bond Auction – yield 0.46%, bid-to-cover 3.8 (lower than previous); Monetary Base YoY change – -1.0% (improved from -1.6%).<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n A mixed-to-bullish outcome is expected for the EUR from the release of a second-tier data set. Specifically, if data exceed forecasts, positive impacts could come from German Factory Orders, French Industrial Production, and Spanish\/Italian Services PMI.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n No major news for CHF today, so the currency’s price will likely depend on the upcoming Unemployment Rate forecasted at 1.9%, unchanged from the previous period.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n UK’s upcoming Final Services PMI is forecasted to remain stable at 52.8, having a limited impact on the currency, while MPC Member Tenreyro’s speech impact is uncertain. The BOE Quarterly Bulletin may have a significant effect as investors watch for potential currency movements based on the BoE\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/b><\/p>\n The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The Trade Balance will likely show a decrease from 1.9B to 1.5B. This suggests that Canada is importing more goods than it is exporting, which could negatively impact the value of the CAD.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n Oil<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n Black gold has maintained its price gains following the surprise cut in production by OPEC+. However, concerns about the lagging impact of recent interest rate hikes are weighing on demand and limiting further price increases. As a result, the upside potential for oil prices may be capped in the near term.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 5 April 2023 What happened […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57578"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57578\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57579,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57578\/revisions\/57579"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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