IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 6 April 2023<\/b><\/p>\n
What happened in the Asia session?<\/b><\/p>\n
The ANZ Commodity Prices m\/m was reported at 1.3%, slightly lower than the forecasted value of 1.4%. This release could have a mildly negative impact on the NZD.<\/span><\/p>\n Australia\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Trade Balance came in at 13.87B, higher than the forecasted 11.33B and the previous value of 11.27B. Moreover, China\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Caixin Services PMI was higher than the predicted and prior values, potentially positively influencing the AUD.<\/span><\/p>\n What does it mean for the Europe & US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n With the Canadian unemployment numbers forecasted to be worse than the numbers from the US, the USD\/CAD pair is likely to see a test of the 1.3500 psychological resistance. Sustained bullishness on the USD, or weakness from the CAD, could see the pair seek 1.3560 before the holidays.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Unemployment Claims<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n According to the forecasted data of 200K, the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits is expected to increase from the previous data of 198K. This suggests a slightly weaker labour market and could lead to a decrease in the value of the USD.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n RBNZ’s surprise 50-bps hike to 5.25% makes holding non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. However, inflation concerns may counteract this, as investors may turn to gold as a hedge against rising inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n China’s Caixin Services PMI data, with a forecasted value of 55.0, is expected to impact the AUD due to the close trading relationship between China and Australia. If the actual value exceeds the forecast, it could boost demand for Australian exports and support the AUD.<\/span><\/p>\n The upcoming release of the Australian Trade Balance data is expected to have a minor impact on the currency, as the forecasted value of 11.33B is slightly lower than the previous value of 11.69B.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n A continued increase in the ANZ Commodity Prices m\/m data release (previous 1.3%) may lead to a short-term rise in NZD’s value.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n The upcoming 30-year bond auction is expected to impact the JPY moderately. A higher yield for the bond auction than the previous yield of 1.42% may increase demand for Japanese government bonds, strengthening the yen.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n The upcoming German Industrial Production m\/m release is expected to decrease to -0.1% (previous 3.5%). This may hurt the EUR as it indicates a potential slowdown in the German manufacturing sector, which could affect the overall Eurozone economy.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n A higher-than-expected level of reserves (previous 771B) would suggest that the SNB may have intervened in the currency markets to maintain a strong Swiss France. This could lead to an appreciation of the CHF against other currencies.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n The Halifax HPI m\/m is expected to show a decline of 0.5%, compared to the previous month’s increase of 1.1%. The Construction PMI is also expected to decrease slightly from 54.6 to 53.4, indicating slowing growth in the construction sector. However, the Housing Equity Withdrawal q\/q is expected to increase by 2.3B, compared to the previous quarter’s decline of -5.8B. Overall, the impact of these data releases on the GBP could be mixed.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/b><\/p>\n The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Employment Change<\/span><\/p>\n Unemployment Rate<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n If the upcoming<\/span> employment change data release (expected 10.2K) comes in below the previous release (previous 21.8K), it could weaken the CAD as it suggests a slowdown in the labour market. Likewise for the Unemployment Rate (forecast 5.1%, last 5.0%)<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n Oil<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n The Crude Oil Inventories data for the week ending on April 1, 2023, was -3.7M barrels, better than the forecasted -1.6M barrels and the previous week’s -7.5M barrels. A decrease in the measure indicates increasing demand and can lead to a rise in crude oil prices.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 6 April 2023 What happened […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":56102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57602","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57602"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57602\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57607,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57602\/revisions\/57607"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57602"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57602"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57602"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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