IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 April 2023<\/b><\/p>\n
What happened in the Asia session?<\/b><\/p>\n
The Japanese Bank Lending y\/y release was 3.0%, lower than the forecasted 3.5% and slightly higher than the previous 3.3%. Core Machinery Orders m\/m actual release was -4.5%, better than the forecasted -6.4% but significantly lower than the last 9.5%.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The PPI y\/y actual release was 7.2%, higher than the forecasted 7.1% and the previous 8.3%, indicating inflationary pressures that could lead to increased demand for the JPY. However, the decline in lending growth and machinery orders could lead to decreased currency demand.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n What does it mean for the Europe & US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n The data-light European session could see the major consolidate the Asian session moves. Any breakthrough will likely come in the US session when the country\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s keenly watched CPI figures are released. USD\/CAD should see the most action since BoC\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s monetary decision is due afterwards. Favourable development on the Canadian front could see the pair lower towards 1.3400. Alternatively, the Loonie could retest recent highs around 1.3550.<\/span><\/p>\n The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n CPI m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n CPI y\/y<\/span><\/p>\n Core CPI m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n According to the forecasted data, the CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 5.2% on a yearly basis. The previous data showed an increase of 0.4% on a monthly basis and 6.0% on a yearly basis.<\/span><\/p>\n If the actual data matches the forecast, it may indicate that the inflation rate is decreasing as rapidly as previously thought. This could lead to a decrease in demand for the US dollar, as the Fed may become less hawkish concerning the rate hike cycle.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n However, if the actual data exceeds the forecast, it could indicate that the high inflation rate remains persistent. This could lead to an increase in demand for the US dollar.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n As forecasted by the IMF, the expected decline in global real GDP growth will likely increase demand for gold as investors seek to hedge against market volatility and inflation. In addition, the reduced growth rate could lead to decreased interest rates, supporting gold prices as lower interest rates make holding non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n A more hawkish tone from the speech by RBA Deputy Governor Bullock could give the AUD boost before Thursday\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s anticipated weakness in the labour markets.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The Kiwi may benefit from the significant increase in China’s new loans, with the actual figure of 3890B surpassing the forecasted and previous figures of 3300B and 1810B, respectively. China is one of New Zealand’s major trading partners.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n Overall, the impact on JPY from Japan\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s upcoming data releases is mixed, with the Bank Lending y\/y data (forecast 3.5%, previous 3.3%) potentially strengthening the currency. In contrast, the Core Machinery Orders m\/m (forecast -6.4%, prior 9.5%) and PPI y\/y (forecast 7.1%, previous 8.2%) data could weaken it.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n A higher average interest rate and a high bid-to-cover ratio for the German 30-year bond (previous 2.32|1.1) auction could be positive for the EUR. In contrast, a low bid-to-cover ratio and a lower average interest rate could be negative.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n Due to the absence of any CHF-specific news until Friday’s release of the PPI m\/m, the ongoing IMF meetings will probably influence the volatility of the Swiss Franc.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n BOE Gov Bailey Speaks<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n BOE Governor Bailey is due to speak about the resilience of the global financial system at an online event hosted by the Institute of International Finance. Audience questions are expected; more hawkish is good for the GBP, and vice versa.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/b><\/p>\n The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n BOC Monetary Policy Report<\/span><\/p>\n BOC Rate Statement<\/span><\/p>\n Overnight Rate<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The Overnight Rate is expected to remain at 4.50%. The accompanying Monetary Policy Report and Rate Statement provide insight into BOC\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s view of the current economic situation and any changes they may make to the monetary policy. The BOC Press Conference provides further context and clarification on the BOC’s decisions and outlook. Generally, a hawkish stance will lead to an increase in CAD.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n Oil<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n The rise in crude oil inventories by 377K barrels in the United States, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute, may hurt the oil market in the short term. This unexpected increase (forecast -1.3m) may lead to decreased oil prices due to oversupply.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 April 2023 What happened […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":57618,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57661"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57661\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57669,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57661\/revisions\/57669"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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