IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 April 2023<\/b><\/p>\n
What happened in the Asia session?<\/b><\/p>\n
The Japanese yen saw a minimal impact on the release of the M2 Money Stock y\/y data, which met the previous figure of 2.6%.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The Australian employment change figure showed an increase of 53.0K jobs, exceeding market expectations of 20.8K. Meanwhile, the country\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.5%. Moreover, the Chinese trade balance showed a surplus of 601B, exceeding expectations of 275B. These developments could potentially boost the AUD.<\/span><\/p>\n What does it mean for the Europe & US Sessions?<\/b><\/p>\n Following the test of 0.6720 in the Asian session, the AUD\/USD pair will likely rechallenge the resistance, underpinned by the relatively positive data releases from Australia and China. Successful bulls would see a rise to 0.6750 before the round figure at 0.6800. Conversely, an hourly close below 0.6675 could set the pairs\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 bulls to the timeframe\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s intermediate trough near 0.6640.<\/span><\/p>\n The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n Core PPI m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n PPI m\/m<\/span><\/p>\n Unemployment Claims<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from DXY today?<\/b><\/p>\n The USD may experience mixed effects based on the upcoming data releases. The Core PPI m\/m forecasted data of 0.2% represents a slight uptick in inflationary pressures. However, the PPI m\/m forecasted data of 0.0% indicates a lack of price pressures in the production sector. The predicted data for Unemployment Claims of 233K represents a slight weakening in the labour market.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n Gold (XAU)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Gold today?<\/b><\/p>\n The recent release of US CPI figures shows a lower-than-expected monthly price increase, suggesting stabilising inflation. This development may have a mixed impact on gold, as a weakening USD may increase demand for gold as a hedge against currency fluctuations. However, stabilising inflation may reduce its appeal as an inflation hedge.\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from AUD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The AUD may see a mixed impact from upcoming data releases on the country’s labour market. The forecasted data for Employment Change shows a decrease from 64.6K to 20.8K. However, the forecasted Unemployment Rate is expected to worsen from 3.5% to 3.6%.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from NZD today?<\/b><\/p>\n Chinese data releases will likely influence the NZD as China is one of New Zealand’s largest trading partners. The upcoming release of China’s Trade Balance is expected to show a surplus of 275B, significantly lower than the previous reading of 810B. Meanwhile, the USD-Denominated variant is forecasted to come in at 40.0B, down from the last reading of 116.9B. A lower-than-expected trade surplus in China could signal a weaker demand for New Zealand’s exports.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from JPY today?<\/b><\/p>\n The forecasted value of 2.5% for the M2 Money Stock y\/y in Japan is slightly lower than the previous value of 2.6%, suggesting that the Japanese economy may be growing slower than anticipated. This could lead to a decrease in demand for JPY.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/span><\/p>\n The Euro (EUR)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from EUR today?<\/b><\/p>\n The upcoming data releases for EUR include German Final CPI at a forecasted 0.8%, Italian Industrial Production expected to rebound to 0.5% from the previous -0.7%, and a predicted increase in Industrial Production m\/m for the Eurozone to 0.9%. The Spanish 10-y Bond Auction may impact the EUR depending on the auction result, and German Buba President Nagel speaking may offer insight into the country’s monetary policy.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CHF today?<\/b><\/p>\n The ongoing IMF meetings will likely affect the Swiss Franc’s volatility, given the lack of any CHF-specific news until the release of the PPI m\/m on Friday.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n The Pound (GBP)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n BOE Gov Bailey Speaks<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from GBP today?<\/b><\/p>\n The upcoming release of the UK’s GDP m\/m data is expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.1%, indicating the economy\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s growth rate is slowing. This could hurt the value of GBP, as investors may be less inclined to hold it if they anticipate weaker economic performance.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Weak Bearish<\/b><\/p>\n The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n BOC Gov Macklem Speaks<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from CAD today?<\/b><\/p>\n The BoC Governor, Tiff Macklem, will deliver a speech on Canadian economic growth and inflation at the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, DC. The chief is likely to reiterate the stance of holding rates steady for its latest monetary policy decision.<\/span><\/p>\n Central Bank Notes:<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/b><\/p>\n Mixed<\/span><\/p>\n Oil<\/b><\/p>\n Key news events today<\/b><\/p>\n No major news events.<\/span><\/p>\n What can we expect from Oil today?<\/b><\/p>\n The weaker USD due to a stabilising inflation environment should continue to lead to the rise in oil prices due to the increased demand for the commodity. The surprise build in Crude Oil Inventories of 0.6m (forecast -1.0m, last -3.7m) may limit gains somewhat.<\/span><\/p>\n Next 24 Hours Bias<\/span><\/p>\n Weak Bullish<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 April 2023 What happened […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":57618,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57681"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57681\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57690,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57681\/revisions\/57690"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/icmarkets.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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