Thursday 24th June 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

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EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that price has bounced back and is currently re-testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. There would be limited upside from this level before bearish pressure resumes. On the daily chart, price pulled back from 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. We are seeing a low-probability continuation of the bounce to retest resistance level at 1.20073, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200MA. RSI is also rebounding from the oversold level and is in-line with our short-term bullish outlook.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are trending in an ascending channel and pulled back from our first resistance at 1.19800, in-line with 78.6%, -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline resistance. We are seeing a low-probability continuation of the bounce to our first resistance at 1.19915, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 200MA on the daily. RSI is also indicating continual bullish momentum supporting our short-term bullish outlook. The next level of resistance will be at 1.20130, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

If price faces bearish pressure from current level, it would come back to retest support at 1.18940, in-line with 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The next level of support will be at 1.18600, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.18940 and 1.18600
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.19915 and 1.20130

GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices have bounced back above 20EMA and an ascending trendline. On the daily time frame, prices continue the further bullish momentum and we would expect it to bounce back to 1.40150, in-line with 50MA, ascending trendline support-turned-resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is also rebounding from the oversold level and is in-line with our short-term bullish outlook.

On the H4 timeframe, prices got rejected by the psychological resistance level at 1.400000, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement & 200% Fibonacci extension.

We are seeing a low-probability continuation of the bounce to first resistance level at 1.40115, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement & 100% Fibonacci extension and daily resistance. RSI is indicating bullish momentum supporting our short-term bullish outlook. The next resistance level will be at 1.40595, in-line with 78.6% and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.

If price faces further bearish pressure from current level, we could see the price coming back to test 1.39000, in-line with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. The next level of support will be at 1.38120, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 39000 and 1.38120 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.40115 and 1.40595 resistance level

AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we see price under 0.76073, in line with previous swing low, where we may see a continuation of push down towards 0.74063, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension and horizontal graphical overlap. From the daily timeframe, we see a similar action where price is pushing down towards the 0.74362 level, in line with Weekly support, -27% and 127% fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price reversing on the major level of 0.7600 in line with Weekly and Daily resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension and descending trendline resistance, we may expect price to drop to 0.74362, in line with Weekly and Daily resistance and -27% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 timeframe showing reversal at 0.7600 towards 0.74362
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing bearish pressure.

USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are bullish and are pushing up towards  facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance level 114.465 which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily time frame, prices are holding nicely above the 21 period EMA. Prices have broken through the previous resistance level of 110.978 and are now pushing up towards the weekly level of 114.665,in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. A pullback from that level could mean prices would take support on 108.425 level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are showing the same picture. Prices have broken through the previous swing high which is daily/weekly resistance level of 110.978. Next short term target is 112.148 level in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension before the 114.665 level on the daily and weekly timeframe. 34 Period EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  • 148 resistance level on the H4 timeframe might be next upside target
  • 786 support level on the H4 timeframe

 

USD/CAD:

From the Weekly timeframe, we saw a break above the longer term descending trendline resistance turned support drawn from 23rd March 2020, and is currently returning to test it as support. We may see a bounce from here. On the daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar move, where price is currently testing the 1.22730 level, in line with weekly support and 50% fibonacci retracement.
The H4 timeframe shows a clearing view on the reversal point in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, Weekly and Daily support. From here we may see a push up towards major level 1.2500, in line with Daily resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows the price reversing from the key resistance area.
  • On H4, price may bounce towards 1.2500

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now testing the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see further downside below the 0.92300 resistance.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has shown a reversal at  the 0.92300 resistance level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and is now pushing lower. We note that RSI has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. In this scenario, we could see price face further downside towards 0.90500 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance. However, should price break and close above the 0.92300 resistance, we could see price push higher to test the subsequent weekly resistances.

Areas of consideration:

  • The 0.92300 resistance is a key intraday level to watch.
  • We could see price drop towards the next 0.90500 support level.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, prices traded lower, spooked by inflation fears and the Federal Reserve looking to raise interest rates as early as 2023. With price approaching 32765 support, we might see bullish pressure above this level. On the daily chart, price is bouncing above the weekly support at 32765. Buyers may look  to add  their longs to push price higher towards possible target at 35090 resistance. Stochastic is testing support as well where price bounced in the past.

On the H4, price is still holding above 33475 support. With stochastic testing support where price bounced in the past, we see a possibility where buyers may add to their longs on pullbacks with an upside target at 34472 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 33475 should see the price swing the other way towards weekly support at 32765.

Areas of consideration:

  • Weekly key level at 32765 support is of key interest
  • 34472 near term resistance on H4

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, pulled back lower and is testing key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price tested and reacted above 1764 weekly support. While 1764 support looks fragile, as long as we do not have a daily close below this support, we may see price bounce towards 1855 resistance. Otherwise, breaking below 1764 support, price could drop lower towards 1677 support next.

On the H4, price drifted lower and is coming close to 1764 support. We see a low probability bullish scenario where buyers could add to their longs above 1764 weekly support with a possible upside target at 1808 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1764 weekly support will see price drop much lower towards next support at 1724. Stochastic is reacting above support where price bounced in the past.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1764 support is the key level to watch.
  • 1808 resistance on H4 to watch.

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